- Migration - mailman.cs.vt.edu

VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 09 Dec '22

09 Dec '22

All, Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is anything you would like to discuss further. Thanks, Brian (and team) -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 28 Nov '22

28 Nov '22

All, I hope you enjoyed your holiday weekend. Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is anything you would like to discuss further. Let us know when you want to try and reschedule last week's meeting. Thanks, Brian (and team) -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Re: [Migration] VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 21 Nov '22

21 Nov '22

Got it. No worries. Let us know what dates/times work for you to reschedule. We are off this Wed/Thurs/Fri but will send our update on Monday. Have a Happy Thanksgiving! Thanks, Brian On Mon, Nov 21, 2022 at 4:19 PM TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> wrote: > Brian—will have to re-schedule—snafu on our end—sorry, Tim > > > > *From:* TIMOTHJG > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 4:10 PM > *To:* 'Brian Mayer' <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu>; Nicole C Peruyera < > NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Cc:* James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov>; Deborah A Bowman < > DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > Nope—having ‘lead’ info snag—give me a couple mins pls! > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 4:09 PM > *To:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Cc:* James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov>; TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; > Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Subject:* Re: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > I think we are sitting in the waiting room. Are we in the wrong place? > > > > THis is the link I have from the invite: > > > > > https://gov.teams.microsoft.us/l/meetup-join/19%3agcch%3ameeting_a0a8c19914… > <https://www.google.com/url?q=https://gov.teams.microsoft.us/l/meetup-join/1…> > > > > On Mon, Nov 21, 2022 at 11:01 AM Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> wrote: > > No worries. Totally understand. Both times I think worked for us we just > wanted to make sure. I should have followed up last week. > > > > On Mon, Nov 21, 2022 at 10:50 AM Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > wrote: > > Thanks, Jim. > > > > Brian, can you still make it? > > > > Also, thank you for the replies to my two questions! > > > > > > -v/r > > > > Nicole Peruyera > > Deputy National Intelligence Manager > > Western Hemisphere and Transnational Crime > > Open: (703) 375-3190; Secure: 917-3190 > > Unclassified Email: nicolecp(a)nctc.gov > > SIPR: peruyer(a)dni.sgov.gov > > Classified Email: peruyer(a)dni.ic.gov > > > > > > > > > > > > *From:* James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov> > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:49 AM > *To:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu>; > TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> > *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov > > > *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen. > > Sorry…the original Microsoft teams invite was sent out with the incorrect > time zone, but resent with correct time. > > This meeting is at 4:00pm this afternoon. > > Regret any inconvenience. > > > > V/R > > *Jim* > > J. M. “Jim” Robinson > > Executive Assistant (Contractor) > > *571-280-5154 (Temporarily)* > > *(s) 931-4335 (Temporarily)* > > > > > > > > *From:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:46 AM > *To:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu>; James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov>; > TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> > *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov > > > *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > Brian: > > > > I think we were tracking 4pm. > > > > *Jim/Tim:* Please confirm correct time soonest since 1100 is 15 min away! > > > > Thanks, > > Nicole > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:04 AM > *To:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov>; > migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* Re: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > We wanted to confirm the timing of our meeting today. The email said 4 > then 12 and then 4 again. The invites said 4 then 11, but 11 was the most > recent, so I assumed that was the most accurate one. Please confirm. > > > > We were able to finalize the purchase with one of the vendors but the > other vendor (that supplies more of the data) had changed some of their > policies since our last purchase and the university procurement office is > trying to negotiate the new conditions. They are trying to finalize it this > week before the holiday. We are still able to query recent articles which > helps us some but doesn't allow us to actually train the models. > > > > Our goal for lead time, as stated in the SOW, is to be on the scale of 72 > hrs. We did mention in one of the updates that because the current ground > truth data is only monthly we may have to make changes to previous > predictions post-prediction. That may change as we get better ground truth > data sources > > > > Brian > > > > > > > > On Sun, Nov 20, 2022 at 3:01 PM Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > wrote: > > Hi Bryan: > > > > Two quick questions for you: > > > > Were you able to resolves the data source issue on the news article you > mentioned in the 11/11 update last week? > > Do you have a sense of the predictive timeline of the model? (one week, > 72hrs, etc?) > > > > Thank you! > > > > > > -v/r > > > > Nicole Peruyera > > Deputy National Intelligence Manager > > Western Hemisphere and Transnational Crime > > Open: (703) 375-3190; Secure: 917-3190 > > Unclassified Email: nicolecp(a)nctc.gov > > SIPR: peruyer(a)dni.sgov.gov > > Classified Email: peruyer(a)dni.ic.gov > > > > > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Friday, November 11, 2022 8:46 AM > *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; > Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A > Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Cc:* migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > All, > > Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is > anything you would like to discuss further. > > > > Thanks, > > Brian (and team) > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Re: [Migration] VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 21 Nov '22

21 Nov '22

I think we are sitting in the waiting room. Are we in the wrong place? THis is the link I have from the invite: https://gov.teams.microsoft.us/l/meetup-join/19%3agcch%3ameeting_a0a8c19914… <https://www.google.com/url?q=https://gov.teams.microsoft.us/l/meetup-join/1…> On Mon, Nov 21, 2022 at 11:01 AM Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> wrote: > No worries. Totally understand. Both times I think worked for us we just > wanted to make sure. I should have followed up last week. > > On Mon, Nov 21, 2022 at 10:50 AM Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > wrote: > >> Thanks, Jim. >> >> >> >> Brian, can you still make it? >> >> >> >> Also, thank you for the replies to my two questions! >> >> >> >> >> >> -v/r >> >> >> >> Nicole Peruyera >> >> Deputy National Intelligence Manager >> >> Western Hemisphere and Transnational Crime >> >> Open: (703) 375-3190; Secure: 917-3190 >> >> Unclassified Email: nicolecp(a)nctc.gov >> >> SIPR: peruyer(a)dni.sgov.gov >> >> Classified Email: peruyer(a)dni.ic.gov >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> *From:* James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov> >> *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:49 AM >> *To:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; Brian Mayer < >> bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu>; TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> >> *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi < >> FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> >> *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update >> >> >> >> Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen. >> >> Sorry…the original Microsoft teams invite was sent out with the incorrect >> time zone, but resent with correct time. >> >> This meeting is at 4:00pm this afternoon. >> >> Regret any inconvenience. >> >> >> >> V/R >> >> *Jim* >> >> J. M. “Jim” Robinson >> >> Executive Assistant (Contractor) >> >> *571-280-5154 (Temporarily)* >> >> *(s) 931-4335 (Temporarily)* >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> *From:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> >> *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:46 AM >> *To:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu>; James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov>; >> TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> >> *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi < >> FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> >> *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update >> >> >> >> Brian: >> >> >> >> I think we were tracking 4pm. >> >> >> >> *Jim/Tim:* Please confirm correct time soonest since 1100 is 15 min >> away! >> >> >> >> Thanks, >> >> Nicole >> >> >> >> *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> >> *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:04 AM >> *To:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> >> *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi < >> FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov>; migration(a)cs.vt.edu >> *Subject:* Re: VT Migration Prediction Update >> >> >> >> We wanted to confirm the timing of our meeting today. The email said 4 >> then 12 and then 4 again. The invites said 4 then 11, but 11 was the most >> recent, so I assumed that was the most accurate one. Please confirm. >> >> >> >> We were able to finalize the purchase with one of the vendors but the >> other vendor (that supplies more of the data) had changed some of their >> policies since our last purchase and the university procurement office is >> trying to negotiate the new conditions. They are trying to finalize it this >> week before the holiday. We are still able to query recent articles which >> helps us some but doesn't allow us to actually train the models. >> >> >> >> Our goal for lead time, as stated in the SOW, is to be on the scale of 72 >> hrs. We did mention in one of the updates that because the current ground >> truth data is only monthly we may have to make changes to previous >> predictions post-prediction. That may change as we get better ground truth >> data sources >> >> >> >> Brian >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Sun, Nov 20, 2022 at 3:01 PM Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> >> wrote: >> >> Hi Bryan: >> >> >> >> Two quick questions for you: >> >> >> >> Were you able to resolves the data source issue on the news article you >> mentioned in the 11/11 update last week? >> >> Do you have a sense of the predictive timeline of the model? (one week, >> 72hrs, etc?) >> >> >> >> Thank you! >> >> >> >> >> >> -v/r >> >> >> >> Nicole Peruyera >> >> Deputy National Intelligence Manager >> >> Western Hemisphere and Transnational Crime >> >> Open: (703) 375-3190; Secure: 917-3190 >> >> Unclassified Email: nicolecp(a)nctc.gov >> >> SIPR: peruyer(a)dni.sgov.gov >> >> Classified Email: peruyer(a)dni.ic.gov >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> >> *Sent:* Friday, November 11, 2022 8:46 AM >> *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; >> Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A >> Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> >> *Cc:* migration(a)cs.vt.edu >> *Subject:* VT Migration Prediction Update >> >> >> >> All, >> >> Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is >> anything you would like to discuss further. >> >> >> >> Thanks, >> >> Brian (and team) >> >> >> >> >> -- >> >> Brian Mayer >> >> bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu >> >> 540-231-5907 >> >> Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics >> <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> >> Brian Mayer >> >> bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu >> >> 540-231-5907 >> >> Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics >> <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> >> > > > -- > Brian Mayer > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > 540-231-5907 > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Fwd: VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 21 Nov '22

21 Nov '22

I don't know why the migration.cs.vt.edu keeps getting dropped of the replies. ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> Date: Mon, Nov 21, 2022 at 11:01 AM Subject: Re: VT Migration Prediction Update To: Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> Cc: James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov>, TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>, Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>, Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> No worries. Totally understand. Both times I think worked for us we just wanted to make sure. I should have followed up last week. On Mon, Nov 21, 2022 at 10:50 AM Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> wrote: > Thanks, Jim. > > > > Brian, can you still make it? > > > > Also, thank you for the replies to my two questions! > > > > > > -v/r > > > > Nicole Peruyera > > Deputy National Intelligence Manager > > Western Hemisphere and Transnational Crime > > Open: (703) 375-3190; Secure: 917-3190 > > Unclassified Email: nicolecp(a)nctc.gov > > SIPR: peruyer(a)dni.sgov.gov > > Classified Email: peruyer(a)dni.ic.gov > > > > > > > > > > > > *From:* James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov> > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:49 AM > *To:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu>; > TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> > *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov > > > *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen. > > Sorry…the original Microsoft teams invite was sent out with the incorrect > time zone, but resent with correct time. > > This meeting is at 4:00pm this afternoon. > > Regret any inconvenience. > > > > V/R > > *Jim* > > J. M. “Jim” Robinson > > Executive Assistant (Contractor) > > *571-280-5154 (Temporarily)* > > *(s) 931-4335 (Temporarily)* > > > > > > > > *From:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:46 AM > *To:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu>; James M. Robinson <JAMESMR6(a)dni.gov>; > TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> > *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov > > > *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > Brian: > > > > I think we were tracking 4pm. > > > > *Jim/Tim:* Please confirm correct time soonest since 1100 is 15 min away! > > > > Thanks, > > Nicole > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Monday, November 21, 2022 10:04 AM > *To:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > *Cc:* Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov>; > migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* Re: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > We wanted to confirm the timing of our meeting today. The email said 4 > then 12 and then 4 again. The invites said 4 then 11, but 11 was the most > recent, so I assumed that was the most accurate one. Please confirm. > > > > We were able to finalize the purchase with one of the vendors but the > other vendor (that supplies more of the data) had changed some of their > policies since our last purchase and the university procurement office is > trying to negotiate the new conditions. They are trying to finalize it this > week before the holiday. We are still able to query recent articles which > helps us some but doesn't allow us to actually train the models. > > > > Our goal for lead time, as stated in the SOW, is to be on the scale of 72 > hrs. We did mention in one of the updates that because the current ground > truth data is only monthly we may have to make changes to previous > predictions post-prediction. That may change as we get better ground truth > data sources > > > > Brian > > > > > > > > On Sun, Nov 20, 2022 at 3:01 PM Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> > wrote: > > Hi Bryan: > > > > Two quick questions for you: > > > > Were you able to resolves the data source issue on the news article you > mentioned in the 11/11 update last week? > > Do you have a sense of the predictive timeline of the model? (one week, > 72hrs, etc?) > > > > Thank you! > > > > > > -v/r > > > > Nicole Peruyera > > Deputy National Intelligence Manager > > Western Hemisphere and Transnational Crime > > Open: (703) 375-3190; Secure: 917-3190 > > Unclassified Email: nicolecp(a)nctc.gov > > SIPR: peruyer(a)dni.sgov.gov > > Classified Email: peruyer(a)dni.ic.gov > > > > > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Friday, November 11, 2022 8:46 AM > *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; > Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A > Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Cc:* migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > All, > > Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is > anything you would like to discuss further. > > > > Thanks, > > Brian (and team) > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Re: [Migration] VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 21 Nov '22

21 Nov '22

We wanted to confirm the timing of our meeting today. The email said 4 then 12 and then 4 again. The invites said 4 then 11, but 11 was the most recent, so I assumed that was the most accurate one. Please confirm. We were able to finalize the purchase with one of the vendors but the other vendor (that supplies more of the data) had changed some of their policies since our last purchase and the university procurement office is trying to negotiate the new conditions. They are trying to finalize it this week before the holiday. We are still able to query recent articles which helps us some but doesn't allow us to actually train the models. Our goal for lead time, as stated in the SOW, is to be on the scale of 72 hrs. We did mention in one of the updates that because the current ground truth data is only monthly we may have to make changes to previous predictions post-prediction. That may change as we get better ground truth data sources Brian On Sun, Nov 20, 2022 at 3:01 PM Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov> wrote: > Hi Bryan: > > > > Two quick questions for you: > > > > Were you able to resolves the data source issue on the news article you > mentioned in the 11/11 update last week? > > Do you have a sense of the predictive timeline of the model? (one week, > 72hrs, etc?) > > > > Thank you! > > > > > > -v/r > > > > Nicole Peruyera > > Deputy National Intelligence Manager > > Western Hemisphere and Transnational Crime > > Open: (703) 375-3190; Secure: 917-3190 > > Unclassified Email: nicolecp(a)nctc.gov > > SIPR: peruyer(a)dni.sgov.gov > > Classified Email: peruyer(a)dni.ic.gov > > > > > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Friday, November 11, 2022 8:46 AM > *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; > Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A > Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Cc:* migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > All, > > Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is > anything you would like to discuss further. > > > > Thanks, > > Brian (and team) > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 20 Nov '22

20 Nov '22

All, Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is anything you would like to discuss further. Thanks, Brian (and team) -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Fwd: update
by Naren Ramakrishnan 17 Nov '22

17 Nov '22

Hi Nathan, Take a look at the attached - has a lot of keywords. Haven't gone through it in detail but wanted to send it to you quickly in case you are getting ready to run your queries. Brian, we should update our spreadsheets.. Naren ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu> Date: Thu, Nov 17, 2022 at 1:27 AM Subject: Re: update To: naren(a)cs.vt.edu <naren(a)cs.vt.edu> Cc: Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> Naren and Brian, Please find attached a file with my additional words. I also found an article, with its supplementary material, that discusses predictive analysis for humanitarian aid and relief groups who need to be prepared for sudden flows of refugees and internally displaced persons. I'm attaching that material because it will be helpful in writing up the initial report to ODNI about whatever results you get and the potential of retooling EMBERS for migrant surges in the Western Hemisphere. Finally, I'm attaching some materials to demonstrate how the IOM (International Office on Migration) is pulling together daily/weekly/monthly data on migratory flows. I'll work on the annotated short bibliography next. If you need me to do anything else, just let me know. Good luck, David ------------------------------ *From:* Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu> *Sent:* Monday, November 14, 2022 12:26 PM *To:* naren(a)cs.vt.edu <naren(a)cs.vt.edu> *Cc:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> *Subject:* Re: update Thanks for the clarifications, Naren. I'll get back to work on this today. David ------------------------------ *From:* Naren Ramakrishnan <naren(a)cs.vt.edu> *Sent:* Saturday, November 12, 2022 5:05 AM *To:* Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu> *Cc:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> *Subject:* Re: update Thank you very much David - very very useful! Reg your comment that we are looking for primarily surges of migration - that is true, in that ODNI would like to be ready for a sudden surprise but they are also interested in the total count(s) of people - but we will be able add a default baseline value to a surge-predicted value, to get this total count. We do have multiple news sources and we will get to separating them into country of origin (I am sure we likely have that information) so that as you say we can separate out the context in which specific keywords are used. This will be done using our geolocator. For now we want to use keywords to net a broad collection of articles and then we can distinguish the contextual information in which different keywords are used. So we can think of this stage as a very broad/weak signal just to make sure we don't lose anything that could be relevant later on. We will add these words to our list - please do let us know if there are other push/pull - and also transit issues as you mentioned. Thanks a lot! Naren On Sat, Nov 12, 2022 at 12:54 AM Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu> wrote: Naren and Brian, I've been reading and conceptualizing the task and reviewing the current spreadsheet. We are focusing on *sudden forced migration*, or *migration **surges **NOT* on migration per se or long-term migration dynamics. We can think in terms of ‘triggers’, as we did with civil unrest. The ‘triggers’ are highly likely to be context-dependent and if we only have one data source (major newspapers in English and Spanish?) that could overwhelm the specific context and give us no correlation – e.g., in Costa Rica a proliferation of the words “Cubans”, “Venezuelans” “Nicaraguans” or “Haitians” is likely to refer to the large influx of refugees and irregular migrants so that would be useful to track. But if we can’t separate out the Costa Rican context, then any payoff to us will be overwhelmed by the general use of these words in non-Costa Rican related news stories. The words in the attached file are my initial take. A few of them are already included in the current spreadsheet, but most are not. Before pursuing this line of work, I thought it would be best to get your feedback. Thanks, David ------------------------------ *From:* Naren Ramakrishnan <naren(a)cs.vt.edu> *Sent:* Wednesday, November 9, 2022 1:53 PM *To:* Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu>; Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> *Subject:* Notes from today's call Hi David, So great catching up with you today! Below are the notes from the call. Brian, can you share the current spreadsheet with David? Best, Naren - proportion of minor, timing, origin/destination - push/pull factors, transit issues, blockages - lots of literature: sending and receiving communities - less chaos in these flows than we think, lots more organization and communication. These are high risk movements, they don’t do it willy nilly. - various types of triggers: Salvadorian govt gets into a confusion with US government, so it doesn’t do as much as it has done to curb migrants - keywords: not only in push and pull factors but also in transit arena. - pull factors: jobs, job opportunities, benefits (does not payout as a big attraction) eg CA would permit DACA students to remain in the University system, community ties (people in communities that have ties back to communities in Mexico/Nicaragua), community contacts that help people get a job.. - push factors: convince people to undertake the voyage that has associated range of costs, local violence (targeted violence toward particular communities, e.g., drug gangs shooting not just mayor but also school principal), economic collapse, natural resource issues -- Naren Ramakrishnan <https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://people.cs.vt.edu/*naren/__;fg!!Mih3wA!Bv…> Thomas L. Phillips Professor of Engineering Director, Sanghani Center for AI and Data Analytics <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu__;!!Mih3wA!Bvk3pRaHo…> Director, NSF NRT UrbComp <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/academics/urban-comp…> Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech On Twitter as @profnaren -- Naren Ramakrishnan <http://people.cs.vt.edu/~naren/> Thomas L. Phillips Professor of Engineering Director, Sanghani Center for AI and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu> Director, NSF NRT UrbComp <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/academics/urban-computing/> Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech On Twitter as @profnaren

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Re: [Migration] Information/Data Sets - Migrant Movement Analysis
by Brian Mayer 16 Nov '22

16 Nov '22

We are not receiving those reports. A lot of great data in the Leadership report. A format other than PDF would be preferable. Thanks, Brian On Wed, Nov 16, 2022 at 4:17 PM Flynn A Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> wrote: > Brian, > > > > Hope all is well- > > > > Does your team currently get these elevation data/Migrant Movement > Analysis Dashboard and/or the Executive Leadership reports from the SWB > Task Force? If so, let me know—and if not, we can decidedly help ensure the > data sets and information shown here which is pushed daily is sent to you > directly for use/ingest. > > > > Talk with you soon. > > > > Best regards, > > > > Alexander Rapavi > > 703.275.2711 > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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VT Migration Prediction Update Discussion
by James M. Robinson 15 Nov '22

15 Nov '22

________________________________________________________________________________ Microsoft Teams meeting Join on your computer, mobile app or room device Click here to join the meeting<https://gov.teams.microsoft.us/l/meetup-join/19%3agcch%3ameeting_a0a8c19914…> Or call in (audio only) +1 571-341-9548,,475205149#<tel:+15713419548,,475205149#> United States, Washington Phone Conference ID: 475 205 149# Find a local number<https://dialin.cpc.gov.teams.microsoft.us/e30484e5-793d-49cb-bb2b-76a9ee683…> | Reset PIN<https://dialin.cpc.gov.teams.microsoft.us/usp> [X] Learn More<https://aka.ms/JoinTeamsMeeting> | Meeting options<https://gov.teams.microsoft.us/meetingOptions/?organizerId=2f5119db-8977-40…> ________________________________________________________________________________

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