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VT Migration Prediction Update Discussion
by James M. Robinson 15 Nov '22

15 Nov '22

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Re: [Migration] VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 14 Nov '22

14 Nov '22

That works for us. On Mon, Nov 14, 2022 at 1:28 PM TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> wrote: > Or 12pm same day?! > > > > *From:* TIMOTHJG > *Sent:* Monday, November 14, 2022 1:27 PM > *To:* 'Brian Mayer' <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Cc:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; Deborah A Bowman < > DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi < > FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov>; migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* RE: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > How is 4pm Monday, Brian? > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Monday, November 14, 2022 11:48 AM > *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> > *Cc:* Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; Deborah A Bowman < > DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A Rapavi < > FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov>; migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* Re: VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > That would be great Tim! > > Unfortunately, that time is not good for us. Here are some times that do > work for us. > > Thu: 9-11 or 5-6 > Fri: 2-5 > Mon: anytime > Tue: anytime > > > > Let us know, > > Brian > > > > > > On Mon, Nov 14, 2022 at 10:38 AM TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> wrote: > > Hi Brian and Team, > > > > I had mentioned that the DHS Office of Immigration Statistics have > insights into models they have devised on migration and would be happy to > have a discussion about their experience. > > > > At the very least, am hoping to hear any ‘lessons learned’ from DHS that > may be helpful in this effort. I suspect they’ll be > > > > I’d like to arrange a Teams discussion for this Wednesday, November 16th, > at 1:30pm for an hour (at the max) if you have availability then? > > > > Thanks, Tim > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Friday, November 11, 2022 8:46 AM > *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; > Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A > Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Cc:* migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > All, > > Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is > anything you would like to discuss further. > > > > Thanks, > > Brian (and team) > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Re: [Migration] VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 14 Nov '22

14 Nov '22

That would be great Tim! Unfortunately, that time is not good for us. Here are some times that do work for us. Thu: 9-11 or 5-6 Fri: 2-5 Mon: anytime Tue: anytime Let us know, Brian On Mon, Nov 14, 2022 at 10:38 AM TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> wrote: > Hi Brian and Team, > > > > I had mentioned that the DHS Office of Immigration Statistics have > insights into models they have devised on migration and would be happy to > have a discussion about their experience. > > > > At the very least, am hoping to hear any ‘lessons learned’ from DHS that > may be helpful in this effort. I suspect they’ll be > > > > I’d like to arrange a Teams discussion for this Wednesday, November 16th, > at 1:30pm for an hour (at the max) if you have availability then? > > > > Thanks, Tim > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Friday, November 11, 2022 8:46 AM > *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; > Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A > Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Cc:* migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > All, > > Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is > anything you would like to discuss further. > > > > Thanks, > > Brian (and team) > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Re: [Migration] VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 14 Nov '22

14 Nov '22

VT folks, I am at the Dentist until ~2 on Wed. I think these may be the models that try to identify the number of people they missed but I am not sure about that. I think he said that was the DHS Office of Policy (not Statistics). On Mon, Nov 14, 2022 at 10:38 AM TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov> wrote: > Hi Brian and Team, > > > > I had mentioned that the DHS Office of Immigration Statistics have > insights into models they have devised on migration and would be happy to > have a discussion about their experience. > > > > At the very least, am hoping to hear any ‘lessons learned’ from DHS that > may be helpful in this effort. I suspect they’ll be > > > > I’d like to arrange a Teams discussion for this Wednesday, November 16th, > at 1:30pm for an hour (at the max) if you have availability then? > > > > Thanks, Tim > > > > *From:* Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Friday, November 11, 2022 8:46 AM > *To:* TIMOTHJG <TIMOTHJG(a)nctc.gov>; Nicole C Peruyera <NICOLECP(a)nctc.gov>; > Deborah A Bowman <DEBORAB2(a)dni.gov>; HOLLYTP <HOLLYTP(a)ucia.gov>; Flynn A > Rapavi <FLYNNAR(a)dni.gov> > *Cc:* migration(a)cs.vt.edu > *Subject:* VT Migration Prediction Update > > > > All, > > Please find attached our biweekly status report. Let us know if there is > anything you would like to discuss further. > > > > Thanks, > > Brian (and team) > > > > > -- > > Brian Mayer > > bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu > > 540-231-5907 > > Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics > <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/> > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Fwd: update
by Naren Ramakrishnan 13 Nov '22

13 Nov '22

---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Naren Ramakrishnan <naren(a)cs.vt.edu> Date: Sat, Nov 12, 2022 at 8:05 AM Subject: Re: update To: Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu> Cc: Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> Thank you very much David - very very useful! Reg your comment that we are looking for primarily surges of migration - that is true, in that ODNI would like to be ready for a sudden surprise but they are also interested in the total count(s) of people - but we will be able add a default baseline value to a surge-predicted value, to get this total count. We do have multiple news sources and we will get to separating them into country of origin (I am sure we likely have that information) so that as you say we can separate out the context in which specific keywords are used. This will be done using our geolocator. For now we want to use keywords to net a broad collection of articles and then we can distinguish the contextual information in which different keywords are used. So we can think of this stage as a very broad/weak signal just to make sure we don't lose anything that could be relevant later on. We will add these words to our list - please do let us know if there are other push/pull - and also transit issues as you mentioned. Thanks a lot! Naren On Sat, Nov 12, 2022 at 12:54 AM Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu> wrote: > Naren and Brian, > > I've been reading and conceptualizing the task and reviewing the current > spreadsheet. > > We are focusing on *sudden forced migration*, or *migration **surges * > *NOT* on migration per se or long-term migration dynamics. We can think > in terms of ‘triggers’, as we did with civil unrest. > > The ‘triggers’ are highly likely to be context-dependent and if we only > have one data source (major newspapers in English and Spanish?) that could > overwhelm the specific context and give us no correlation – e.g., in Costa > Rica a proliferation of the words “Cubans”, “Venezuelans” “Nicaraguans” or > “Haitians” is likely to refer to the large influx of refugees and irregular > migrants so that would be useful to track. But if we can’t separate out the > Costa Rican context, then any payoff to us will be overwhelmed by the > general use of these words in non-Costa Rican related news stories. > > The words in the attached file are my initial take. A few of them are > already included in the current spreadsheet, but most are not. Before > pursuing this line of work, I thought it would be best to get your feedback. > > > Thanks, > > David > ------------------------------ > *From:* Naren Ramakrishnan <naren(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Sent:* Wednesday, November 9, 2022 1:53 PM > *To:* Mares, David <dmares(a)ucsd.edu>; Brian Mayer <bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu> > *Subject:* Notes from today's call > > Hi David, > > So great catching up with you today! Below are the notes from the call. > > Brian, can you share the current spreadsheet with David? > > Best, > Naren > > - proportion of minor, timing, origin/destination > - push/pull factors, transit issues, blockages > - lots of literature: sending and receiving communities > - less chaos in these flows than we think, lots more organization and > communication. These are high risk movements, they don’t do it willy nilly. > - various types of triggers: Salvadorian govt gets into a confusion with > US government, so it doesn’t do as much as it has done to curb migrants > - keywords: not only in push and pull factors but also in transit arena. > - pull factors: jobs, job opportunities, benefits (does not payout as a > big attraction) eg CA would permit DACA students to remain in the > University system, community ties (people in communities that have ties > back to communities in Mexico/Nicaragua), community contacts that help > people get a job.. > - push factors: convince people to undertake the voyage that has > associated range of costs, local violence (targeted violence toward > particular communities, e.g., drug gangs shooting not just mayor but also > school principal), economic collapse, natural resource issues > > -- Naren Ramakrishnan <http://people.cs.vt.edu/~naren/> Thomas L. Phillips Professor of Engineering Director, Sanghani Center for AI and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu> Director, NSF NRT UrbComp <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/academics/urban-computing/> Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech On Twitter as @profnaren -- Naren Ramakrishnan <http://people.cs.vt.edu/~naren/> Thomas L. Phillips Professor of Engineering Director, Sanghani Center for AI and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu> Director, NSF NRT UrbComp <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/academics/urban-computing/> Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech On Twitter as @profnaren

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Fwd: Breaking News: Top border official says he was asked to resign
by Brian Mayer 11 Nov '22

11 Nov '22

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Re: [Migration] Updated POC for ODNI for Migration Contract
by Naren Ramakrishnan 04 Nov '22

04 Nov '22

Hi Mark, Thank you very much for getting us onboarded and oriented, and best wishes in your new role(s)! Mr. Rapavi, good to meet you - look forward to working with you. (Brian, please add to migration@cs mailing list). Best, Naren On Fri, Nov 4, 2022 at 12:00 PM Mark B. Pahls <MARKBP3(a)dni.gov> wrote: > Brian/VA Tech Colleagues, > > > > Today is my last day in my current role at ODNI. It has been a pleasure > to work with you through the contract award process and initial execution > activities. > > > > Please also include Mr. Alex Rapavi (cc’ed) on future emails for this > contract effort going forward. A > > > > Thanks, > > Mark > > > _______________________________________________ > Migration mailing list > Migration(a)cs.vt.edu > https://mailman.cs.vt.edu/mailman/listinfo/migration > -- Naren Ramakrishnan <http://people.cs.vt.edu/~naren/> Thomas L. Phillips Professor of Engineering Director, Sanghani Center for AI and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu> Director, NSF NRT UrbComp <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/academics/urban-computing/> Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech On Twitter as @profnaren

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Re: [Migration] Updated POC for ODNI for Migration Contract
by Brian Mayer 04 Nov '22

04 Nov '22

Thanks so much, Mark. Will do. Good Luck! On Fri, Nov 4, 2022 at 12:00 PM Mark B. Pahls <MARKBP3(a)dni.gov> wrote: > Brian/VA Tech Colleagues, > > > > Today is my last day in my current role at ODNI. It has been a pleasure > to work with you through the contract award process and initial execution > activities. > > > > Please also include Mr. Alex Rapavi (cc’ed) on future emails for this > contract effort going forward. A > > > > Thanks, > > Mark > > > -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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Updated POC for ODNI for Migration Contract
by Mark B. Pahls 04 Nov '22

04 Nov '22

Brian/VA Tech Colleagues, Today is my last day in my current role at ODNI. It has been a pleasure to work with you through the contract award process and initial execution activities. Please also include Mr. Alex Rapavi (cc'ed) on future emails for this contract effort going forward. A Thanks, Mark

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VT Migration Prediction Update
by Brian Mayer 27 Oct '22

27 Oct '22

Please find attached our biweekly status report. We added another item to the issues section. Let us know if you have any insight or want to discuss it in a phone call. I am available tomorrow from 9-1. Thanks, Brian (and team) -- Brian Mayer bmayer(a)cs.vt.edu 540-231-5907 Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics <https://sanghani.cs.vt.edu/> - Virginia Tech <https://vt.edu/>

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